Games that People Play(1):- 挟天子以令诸侯

When most people hear that the world is actually controlled by a very few minority people/families who controlled most of the governments in the world... They would simply say that "IT IS IMPOSSIBLE!"

But, in reality, this is not a new concept at all. It happened around the world everywhere. Take for examples:-

In the late Han Dynasty, around 1800 years ago, in China, there was a minister - Cao Cao.
Cao Cao hold the weak Emperor under his control, and made use of the formal legal authority of the Emperor to control the other warlords and force them to comply to his order. In Chinese, it is well known as "挟天子以令诸侯 ". This strategy been repeatedly used in the history. Including the WWII that Japanese used it on China.
Fortunately, there is a defect in this strategy... That is people can see it clearly and try to repel it.
Therefore, in order to use this strategy in modern day, it must be modified, and lets look at how people play this game in this day and age. It must make sure that the people have the good feeling that seem like they have the choice. Like the illustrations from the video and picture below:-

Choosing between two men, or puppets, with the same secret boss behind is still choosing the secret boss.
. .

If the Video above does not appear on your browser...
Then, click on this Youtube Link.

Something Not in the Text Book...

“You may fool all the people some of the time, you can even

fool some of the people all of the time, but you

cannot fool all of the people all the time.”

- Abraham Lincoln

Trap for Investors (4) - Ponzi Scheme and it's Derivatives

Below is a good video clip that explains what is a Ponzi Scheme.

* Why some insurance company policies will eventually ended up like a Ponzi Scheme.

There were many insurance policies that promise certain amount of annual return at the policy mature date, usually a few tens of year from the beginning of the policy. In order to attract the customers, the return has to be attractive enough. Also to minus of all those big bonus for the executives and commission of the salesman, plus the tough economy time to make profits from the market. One of the KEY SOURCE of income would be the new comers to the pool.

To see how this kind of system would fail, one would need to examine the Population Pyramid attached below. (Click to Enlarge)

Population Pyramid (Click on the Chart to Enlarge)

Take for example, many well developed countries are now in the Stage 3 of the pyramid (Stationary) and in the progress of moving towards Stage 4 (Contracting). And, some countries are trying to solve the problem by importing younger workers through immigration policy. But, this could ended up worse when the world economy is not growing.

Therefore, there are many Ponzi Scheme Derivatives such as certain type of Life Insurance Policies, which include the US Social Security System.

The following are good video clips that explain the problem with the Population Pyramids in most developed countries.

* Why inflation is a MUST, in order to keep the current system running.

Around the world, there are many countries, including China, at this point are suffering pain for the Pension Scheme for the retired workforce. In general, a pension is an arrangement that provide the people with an income when they retire from their job till the day he/she leave this planet. Of course, we don't get to see this kind of offer nowadays, but it was popular, especially for civil servant, just about 40-50 years back ...

During that time, the medical is not so advanced and average life expectancy was around 65-70. While just after the WWII for not long, everywhere is booming, the economy grow rate was just taking off. And, currently, the average life expectancy has been increase to about 80 and still seems to moving up. Attached is a typical chart on life expectancy chart found from the web...

On the other hand, the growth of the economy in most developed countries are saturated. As also shown in the population pyramid chart, while more and more people are retiring, there is less and less new work force competing more and more aggressively in the competitive global market.

While the politicians want to be elected or re-elected, they must keep the promise on the Pension Scheme. Naturally, they would keep their promise to pay the retirees, but they would pay more to the workers who are still working on the jobs. While the economy is not growing, the only way is to Increase the Money Supply or so call Print More Money... When more money is flowing into the society while the productivity remain the same... It basically dilute the previous-earned money that keep in the bank.

So, eventually, those people depend on pension system on their retirement will find that their buying power are reducing year by year with respect to the inflation.

After all, keeping cash in the bank has many risk nowadays....
Such as bank go bankrupt or value of money get diluted for sure.
Therefore, learning how to grow the money is a wise thing to do.

If you don't see the document attached below, click on the link:->

"Wealth is the product of man's ability to think."
-Ayn Rand

Relevant Article:- On Population Pyramid

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<  NOTE ADDED ON 10 OCT 2012  >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

The above article was posted immediately after I heard of GENNEVA GOLD investment scheme that can give 24% annual return on Capital.  

Now, it has became history.


Is this a Conspiracy Theory or Fact? Lindsey Williams DVD - The Elite Speak

For sure, many people would not like to spend time to know about something that is called conspiracy. And yet, in the past, many conspiracies had became Facts.

Anyhow, Lindsey Williams did predict many big events that had happened, especially on the Crude Oil price movement.

I don't think everything that he said is correct as there are conflicting messages. But there is no harm in knowing some alternative views of how the world events will happen in his view point. Or just treat it like watching another fiction movie, like 2012 or Avatar. Just need to have an open mind... and think for yourself, as he say that he is just a messenger. Also to ignore any religion's prophecy that get to mix into the video... especially on the 2nd half of the 3rd DVD.

Anyway, his predictions are talking about things going happen in the next 12 months or so. So, we would know if this is a BS or fact in next year.

To continue to watch the whole series in order... Click Here -> Link to youtube.

Here are some of the key points:-

* Human already mastered the technology to influence/control the weather... Such as direct the route of a tornado or hurricane. Google for "HAARP" if you are interested.

* Oil is priced in USD, and USD is going to devalue from 30 to 50 % in 2010.
(If this come true, oil price must raise by equal amount, inflation would be serious).

* Financial Deficit Spending is a wash in paper.
(If this come true, investment instrument that promise in paper is going to be washed away... Such as T-Bill, any derivatives,etc.)

The rest is for those who interested to find out the story....

"Money is a symbol of our confidence in our product,
our service and ourselves! The more confidence
we have in ourselves and/or our product
or service, the more we will be able
to charge for it."
- Paul McKenna

Trap for Investors (3) - Too Big To Fail: Foreign Exchange (Forex) Market

Data from:

Well, this is a known fact. Isn't it?
After the Nasdaq bubble, then by the Housing Bubble, followed by the Subprime Mortgage Crisis... What all US had done, and still doing it now, is to continue printing more money, and they call it stimulus and bailout.

So, we need not to be an economist to deduce that US Dollar is getting weaker and would continue so unless there is a change in the course of action.

Meanwhile, the people who hold on to cash in term of US Dollar would naturally doing their best to protect the value of their money by converting it into other "safer currency". Adding those traders and speculators encouraged by the financial houses... It is leading to another BIG BUBBLE, and it is already FORMED! That's hidden inside the Forex Market.

So, how Big is this Forex Market actually? Any idea?
Let's look that the short clip from his documentary,"Debt as Money II", Paul Grignon had a summary on that: " The transactions taken place in the Foreign Exchange Market in one week EXCEED the total value of the World Trade for Real Good & Services in the entire year."

(start from 3:11 -> 3:50)

While Forex is a HIGH LEVERAGE vehicle, some brokerage houses margin offer up to "400-to-1" or "100 to 1"!

When the public been seeing the trend of US Dollar continue for years to become weaken, they would want move their US Dollar to something else. EURO seems to be an Excellent choice, as it be trending up and up for years.

Did you ever ask that IF the Public is Right that the US Dollar is continuing to get weaker week by week, and month by month for another sure period of time, let say one year or two as suggested by some Gurus who sold newsletters...
Where are they got to claim their profit from???

So, when it come to a time that the statistics indicate most of the public money had already been sucked into Forex Market and BET on the EURO Win Over US Dollar... Something MUST HAPPEN...

So, now we have Greece Financial Crisis surface up....
Possibly follow by Portugal, and even possibly follow by Spain...

This would Create a FEAR for people to hold onto the EURO.
It will come to a point, like a crowd in a building that suddenly caught big fire everywhere, all people want to rush for the small exit all at one time, many would be burned.  And, it could collapse the EURO in a very short period of time.

Is this yet another unpredicted event?
Actually, we are all co-creating the event.
We can choose to follow or not to follow.

"When masses of people succumb to an idea, they often
run off at a tangent because of their emotion."
- Humphrey B. Neill
(The art of Contrary Thinking)

Chinese New Year Greeting

Click to enlarge

Oh! Did you drop by here by accident?
No way. There is synchronicity in everything that we do.

You are dropping by so that these angels of prosperity (招财童子) can get to know you... and they are on the way, rushing to send you tons of GOLD NOW! :-)

May the rest of your life be the best of your life.
- Jose Silva

Bless You
KH Tang

Stock Market Tools (7) - Back Testing

Here is a famous quote from the Art of War by Sun Tzu, and it said that "If you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battle".-知彼知己,百戰不殆.

One of the most useful Stock Trading Tool is Back Testing, as a test result worth more than a thousand opinions. It provides the user to test out the feasibility of his idea or strategy with historical data before putting down his hard-earned money to try out. Or to sum it up, Back Testing can provide the opportunity for one to understand the market behavior(enemy) and evaluate his own strategy(know yourself) ,in simulation mode, first before he handle the real battle.

Lot of the time, the test data will shock the tester. For example, in the previous article on the Jesse Livermore Market Key System. Although Jesse Livermore used it to track and trade the daily market, it is interesting to found that the Monthly Back Testing Result has better yield than Weekly, and the Weekly Back Testing Result has better yield than daily. (Tested with SPY)

Unfortunately, MOST of the trading software, especially those trading classes with online subscription DO NOT provide any Back Testing tool. The reason is simple. If they were to provide such tool, it would just demonstrate on the spot that their trading system would not work over a long period of time with historical data. :-)

The following are couple of Back Testing Charts from the book, "The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators", by Robert W. Colby. This book is around 800 pages, and with hundred of Back Testing Charts for different indicators.

Now, let's review the next few charts:-

1) MACD Back Testing Result.
MACD is probably the most popular technical indicator that use by the public for analyzing the stock momentum and trend. Almost all of the Online or Offline Trading Software Package offer such tool. BUT, apparently, it has lost its effectiveness after 1980. This was the period of time when personal computer started to get popular.

MACD Back Testing Result (Click on the chart to enlarge)

2) Multiple Time Frame(MTF) Back Testing Result.
In short, the idea of multiple-time-frame is for a trader to trade on a particular time frame with momentum while riding the longer time frame trend. For example, a day trader that focus on few minutes momentum must also take note of the trend of the daily chart. Swing Trader who hold positions for the momentum for a couple of days must also be in sync with the trend of the weekly chart.

Interesting enough, this strategy also lost it effectiveness when more public get to know it. :-)
A suggestion is to use some Optimization Tool (to be discuss in the next article soon) to use parameters that are different from the public setting, which usually are the default setting of software package.

MTF Back Testing Result (Click on the chart to enlarge)

3) Volume-Based Indicator Back Testing Result.
There are only 5 parameters in the stock data to perform the analysis. That are Open, High, Low, Close and Volume. And, many books have painted the picture that Volume-Based indicator has the ability to act as a Leading Indicator. Which this WAS Truth in the non-computerized age, but no more holding true at this time. The following chart will speak for itself.

There are a few popular Volume Based Indicators: Namely, On-Balance Volume (OBV), Money Flow, and Accumulation/distribution index, etc. Basically, it considers if today Close (Closing Price of the stock) is higher than yesterday Close, it is a accumulation (demand stronger than supply that push up the price.)

The easiest way for the manipulators to Trick the public with such thinking is that they would sell a whole lot of particular shares on the day from the beginning to the last few minutes... Then they just need to buy back some just before the closing bell ring to make sure that the price is closed higher than yesterday Close. This is particularly true for stocks that are traded with low volume... Say below 100k/day.

Then for those who using such volume-based indicator will think that was an accumulation activities from big buyer. Nothing can be further from the truth.

Actually this idea of volume base indicator has a long history background... It is a short form of the famous "Tape Reading" which make some people to become Guru by mastering such skill. Such as, Jesse Livermore, Richard Wyckoff, Humphrey B. Neill, etc...

But, they are actually compiling the data from every transaction from the tape. While the daily data ONLY OFFER the 5 parameters, Open, High, Low, Close and Volume. The formula in the computer has to make an assumption that strength of Demand and Supply of all transactions over every second, minute or hour during the day are the same... That's why Real Time Data need to be paid, and Daily Data are for FREE. While the actual Tape Reading can still be done today by computer, but it is too much of a task for individual trader. --> TAPE READING.

The following chart shows that purely making decision on volume-based indicator is no more going to make any profit in the market today.

Accumulation/Distribution(A/D) Back Testing Result
(Click on the chart to enlarge)
Ironically, the above-mentioned technical tools are among the most popular tools that a novice would receive if he goes for a trading class. Which could cost them thousands of dollars... And then come with an annual subscription to use their tools which needs to be renew continuously. (Me Too. Been There, Done That.)

4) Market Breadth Indicators Back Testing Result
In his book, "The Complete Guide to Market Breadth Indicator: How to Analyze and Evaluate market Direction and Strength", Greory Morris has compiled a big list of Market Breadth Indicator that the readers can program for themselves to analysis the market.

Basically, the individual stock in the market tends to move like a school of fish... They move in the same direction and also turn the direction almost together, and at the same time.

Or it can put in another way... individual stock can be manipulated much more easily than a number of stocks bundle together.

The following two charts illustrate the Back Testing Result of Market Breadth Indicators.

Advance/Decline Momentum Oscillator

McClellan Oscillator

For today market, Market Breadth Indicators are actually getting more and more useful for trader or investor. As there are more and more index Tracking ETFs and Sector ETFs.

On the right hand side of the of the column, under the Financial Tool Section, there is a link "Market Breadth Charting for ETFs" that provide free market breadth indicator for major ETFs.

Last but not least...

"Plan for the future, because that is where you are going to spend the rest of your life."
-Mark Twain