Personal Finance (4) : Asset Allocation

The movie, INCEPTION, besides it was extremely entertaining, reflected back to me a very profound message -> "What ever seed(idea) that is planted into the subconscious mind, given time, it will sprout!" Therefore, the show ended after the seed was planted onto the target, by knowing that it will be carried out in reality later on.

So, what does it got to do with this article on Asset Allocation?!?!

Well, after staying in the market for many years, only until recently, I suddenly realized that someone had first seeded the idea of Asset Allocation in my mind, which then lead me to have the burning desire to know how the stock market works.

Here is the story...

About 9 years ago, a former boss called me up and said that she had just attended an excellent 2-day seminar on "Personal Financial Success" which could lead to early retirement... And, she wanted to share with friends because she thought that could be helpful. Indeed, that was so helpful that it rocked my comforting chair in the corporation into pieces!

And, here is the Outline of the concept of personal financial Asset Allocation:-

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Asset Allocation can be defined as the process of evaluating and choosing among the possible asset class for investment. So, that it can generate Passive Income.

Recently I came across an survey that most US citizen has about USD25k of net worth when they reach their retirement age. That's less than one year of their salary! Not even the professional trader can live with this small capital account...

So, in order to have adequate saving, for the working class, one must first break the "Parkinson's 2nd Law: Expenses always rises to meet income". If one don't break this law, no matter how much he made over the years with increments and promotions, he would not have much excess money for investment, and lucky if he don't have debt with his credit card.

Now, let say that one has the discipline to save portion of the money from his paycheck monthly, soon he will need to learn to manage the money for compound profits or the inflation will devalue them.

The core concept of the Asset Allocation is to divide the money into three portions. Imagine that you have three buckets, and you label them as "Security Bucket", "Buy and Hold Bucket" & "Speculative Bucket". Then allocate the money into there different buckets like planting seeds and letting them grow.

I) Risk Management

The purpose of separating them into three portions is to diversity the risk. One VERY IMPORTANT concept is that these three buckets MUST BE COMPLETELY ISOLATED. Meaning that, if one portion of investment incur losses, one must not use money from the bucket to fill it up again... Until one do his home work to find out what's wrong with the investment strategies...

Otherwise, it might just repeat the tragedy of the "Unsinkable Titanic"... The Titanic sank because of the partitions to isolate the sections of the ship was not high enough. So that the water can flow through the partition from the front section to the back after it hit the iceberg head on.

II) Allocation

And, as for the percentage of allocation of the asset... many text books and financial advisors from banks would recommend you to be more aggressive when you are younger (under 45), then become more conservative when getting older (over 60).

The following is a typical diagram can easily be found from the web... (Will comment on this later on.)

III) Rebalance

These bucket will need to be periodically revisited, preferably 6 months, and adjusted as needs and financial worth change.

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Comment: The above is yet another text book/class room theory for the beginner who did not spend time thinking of asset allocation before... In practical, one will then realize that there are flaws in the theory.

For examples:

1) Why recommend younger people to take higher risk in the market?!

It reasons that if the younger investor fail, then he can has more time to start all over again... That's completely nonsense!

Especially for beginner, it doesn't matter one is a CEO of a high-tech firm or a worker in the workshop... The experiences in his other careers and success don't count when it come to the stock market. All should start with "Very Conservative" in mind.

So, it should not be grouped by ages (as what the investment firms advise)! Rather, it should be grouped by professionalism! And, professionalism means adequate amount of learning, practicing and improving. And that got to do with personal time allocation. :-)

2) Why Buy and Hold for six month period?

Unlike fund manager, in the bear market, they can choose to rotate the fund among different sectors, but there are law to prevent them from cashing all out. Otherwise the market will fall to some point beyond imagination. But, as individual investor, you are free to do so!

"Every challenge we face can be solved by a dream."

- Dr. David Schwartz



----- Added on 21-Aug-2014  on Asset Allocation of Retirement Fund By Different Countries ------

When the next Stock Bubble Burst, USA would suffer the MOST!!!

------------------------ Excerpt  from the Link  ---------------------------------

What, however, is known is that in a country like Germany between 2005 and 2012 the Pension funds asset rotation out of stocks and into bonds has been truly unprecedented, with stocks plummeting from 30%+ of total exposure to less than 5%! 

------------------------ End of Excerpt  ---------------------------------

Well, the article above link shows that some European Countries are more conservative and avoid the market - almost completely - is NOT NECESSARY the right thing to do....

The Right Thing to DO is to learn about it and rotate the money In-and-Out of different Markets/Sectors...

Putting in Bond is to accept depreciation through Inflation.

For Example, from 2010 till now (2014 Aug) - many markets already double... Of Course, it would CRASH anytime.  The right rule for this game is to rotate the asset from stock to bond when it starts to happen.  Avoiding the Risk is another kind of RISK!!!

Evolve and In Sync With Business Demand

《庄子·列御寇》："朱泙漫学屠龙于支离益，殚千金之家。三年技成，而无所用其巧。"

Zhuangzi once told a story:" A man, PingMan Zhu, wanted to learn the skill of killing dragon from a master, LiYi Zhi. He spent a great fortune for learning the skill. Three years later, he mastered the skill. But, he got no where to apply what he had learnt. (or in today's term, he cannot find a job.)"

The moral of the story is that one must learn a skill that can be applied in this reality world.

 

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Well, let's see how this story, when combine with the following story, may help one to look at thing in a different perspective in this modern society, which may help to rock one out of her comfort zone or develop a sense of urgency in change.

Looking back in our history, the main business of all the developed countries had gone through the phases of shifting from farming/fishing to industrialization(factories), then from industrialization to information age and eventually become financial centers.

The paces of the shift were happened at different rate in different countries/regions of the world. In general, it happened faster in the more developed countries...

Now...

Let's take a look at a real life example of such rapid change of my lovely country, Singapore, in the past 4 decades...

1.) Since the late 60's Merlion was the key symbol representing Singapore. Its name combines "mer" meaning sea and "lion". The fish body comes from Singapore's ancient name back when it was a fishing village.

Merlion

2.) Then in the 70's, Singapore attracted more and more foreign investors from the west to set up factories, and getting more and more industrialized. Changi Aiport Tower became another important symbol to represent that milestone.

Changi Airport Tower

3.) On the same time, Singapore had also developed many theme parks, such as the famous Singapore Zoo, Bird park, and the representative one is Sentosa, for tourism.

Sentosa

4.) Then Singapore evolved into a Financial Center with Shenton Way Buildings as a Logo.

Shenton Way

5.) Now, Singapore has its new logo -- Sands Singapore -- a world class glamorous Integrated Resort.

Sands Singapore

Anyway, this is just to show the change in trend.

Needless to say in detail, there is really nothing to be proud of to have Casinos in the country... Though this will bring in progress in GDP, it would also bring along decay in other intangible aspects!

See... I once read about an interview with a VP of a Casino in Las Vegas, he described that his job is very challenging ->"On one hand, it is our business to suck up maximum profit from our customers; on the other hand, it is our job to keep most of them happy."

6.) What's next in the next decade?!

7.)  In what Stage of the Industry Life-cycle for the job that you are holding onto now?
      It may be a tough question to answer...  And, if one does not feel that kind of excitement he used to have when he newly join the industry, the answer is clear and need to say no more.

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With the above example, it shows that most skills that one can learn from the University would likely to be obsolete and out-of-synch with the market demand in about 10 years time. While a typical person working life span is about 40 years nowadays (say, 25 to 65).

Take for example, when the manufacturing plants move out to other countries, an engineering manager may choose to move together with the plant for start up... However, if he did not manage to learn some new skill, while he is working full time on the current job, he would need to follow the plant whenever and wherever it goes... and provided the plant is still exist and need him...

For this reason, just an opinion, self-initiated continuous learning of new things is suggested. :-)

"Without continual growth and progress, such words

as improvement, achievement, and success

have no meaning."

- Benjamin Franklin

Relevant Articles:
Project Freedom

->Home<-

The Pyramid of Harmonic Wealth

Click on the picture to zoom in...

Above is a template that can be use to plan for personal goals and success. I first found the similar template, a few years ago, from a book (Fulfill Your Dream With A Diary) "记事本圆梦计划" by a successful Japanese businessman/ entrepreneur/ author - 熊谷正寿. And, it been very helpful to organize personal plans in a balanced and harmonic way. Such as, it can help one to focus on the ultimate goals rather than distract by the day-to-day activities. That is to focus on business rather than busy-ness.

Recently, while sharing the template with a friend, Clara Szalai, she immediately pointed out that something is missing... and inspired me to put in a very Key and Important factor that most of us had been taken for granted while pursuing personal goals --> that is the Factor of Environmental. Very true, we must intentionally preserve the environment while in the process of building individual wealth, that's the way for long term sustainability. Thanks, Clara.


O.K.
Having acknowledged the sources, now let's discuss on the philosophy, in brief, of the template and how it may be useful for individual.




As shown in the diagram above, there are stages in building the Personal Pyramid of Harmonic Wealth.

The Fundamental Stage consist of the building block of "Intellectual","Physical", and "Spiritual".
The Real-life Stage consist of the building block of "Personal" and "Social".
The building block of Result Stage is "Financial".
Now, think about it, where should this Whole Pyramid got to build onto? On the solid foundation on of mother earth... and that's why the "Environmental" got to be added - which is usually too conveniently forgotten.

In order to build a solid and stable pyramid, one should start work from the lower level. That is the Fundamental Stage. This take personal time and effort, such as learning and research of specialized knowledge, exercise, meditation, etc...

Follow by creating a harmony personal life and using his knowledge to contribute to the society. Then the Financial Wealth would follow automatically when one can bring value to the market place.

Take for example, there are countless examples of how some individual suddenly gain huge amount of money, but just not able to keep it and get back into poverty within short time. This is mainly that they do not have a solid foundation to hold on to the temporary financial wealth.

As for the environment factor....
It deserves everyone to put more attention to it, especially nowadays. Mainly because people did not pay much attention to it while on the way to build their own wealth.
Simple act such as bring along a bottle of water along when getting out rather than buying bottled-water which creates one rubbish bottle, etc...


Come across an amusing news:
------------------------------------------------------8<----------------------------------------------------------
A recent survey posted by US Private Banks surveyed individuals with a net worth of US$38 million or more. Of those surveyed, 65% stated that they felt "financially insecure."

------------------------------------------------------8<----------------------------------------------------------

So, apparently financial security should not be measured purely by the number of dollar alone...

Most likely their foundation for they pyramid got some problems to sustain the dollars that they had accumulated...

And, may be this could fix:

-> Downloadable Template and Planner <-

So, the state of being Financially Secure is not how much money

one had already been accumulated in the past, rather it is the

confidence in her own ability to earn enough now/future,

and to grow whatever she has at a rate faster

than inflation in the future.

:-)

Bless You
KH Tang

Using "The Power of Consciousness" to Heal Gaia (Mother Earth)

The following blog entry shows a similar idea from two Great Men, Napoleon Hill and Bruce Lipton, in leading the way for building a better world using consciousness...

1. Napoleon Hill's Golden Rule

More than half a century ago, in his book Napoleon Hill’s Golden Rules, after learning from a scientist on how the human cells function in the body, he wrote about his imagination on how the entire human race is working interactively like the cells in a human body.

8<-------------------------------------------excerpt -----------------------------------------

I saw, in my imagination, the entire human race, every living human being on earth, all gathered in one spot and standing in such a position as to form the perfect outline of a human being. At a distance, this seething mass of humanity would resemble one enormous human being. I could see health and success and prosperity for the whole mass as long as there was no discord or misunderstanding between the individuals who constituted the whole. I could see some of the human beings plowing the ground while others were sowing seed and getting ready to produce food. I could see some of the individuals of that enormous gathering working on clothing. I would see still others entertaining the mass with music and causing each individual to be happy and contented.

Perfect harmony prevailed in this imaginary picture. Every individual had plenty to eat and plenty to wear. All were happy and contented. Sorrow and grief were not to be found.

Then, with sudden switch of the imagination, I saw the picture from another angle, an angle which is comparable to the story of the human cells of which the scientist had been telling me. Away down toward the bottom of this great mass of human beings, at a point which would correspond to one of the imaginary giant’s feet, I saw two tiny little human beings get into an argument. They came to blows. Other human beings began to rush up and join in the argument. Pretty soon, one of the entire feet of the imaginary giant had discontinued its regular business, and the ‘‘human cells’’ of which the foot was composed were fighting among themselves. They no longer cooperated. They no longer functioned normally. Pretty soon, the entire body began to feel the loss of one of its feet. It was crippled. It tried to walk but could not move. Other parts of the body commenced to suffer. The body, as a whole, commenced to suffer with hunger because the loss of its foot prevented it from producing food.

Slowly, that enormous body began to wither and go into decay. I could not help comparing it to the individual human body which withers, goes into decay, and finally into death when any group of cells ceases to carry on its normal work.

There is a remedy which is often applied with successful results when the individual cells of the human body begin to ‘‘lie down on the job,’’ and that remedy is to re-establish harmony and cooperation among the cells to the end that they will again function normally.

That same remedy is the one, and probably the only one, which will save the human race and bring it back to normal, healthy, constructive living once more. The same principle which causes the tiny human body cells to function and cooperate in peace and harmony while the individual enjoys a healthy, happy human body applies with equal precision to the entire human race.

8<-------------------------end of excerpt ------------------------------

2. Bruce Lipton's "Spontaneous Evolution"

Video Link to You Tube:<-


And now, Bruce Lipton, a modern internationally recognized leader in bridging science and spirit, has further illustrated the same idea with scientific data and examples in great extend!

In this 50 minutes video clip, it covers many topics which will propel individual onto the path of better consciousness, such as the difference between Subconscious Mind and Conscious Mind, the effect of circumstance on people, how this world became a dog-eat-dog world, and what's the solution to co-create a better world in the very very near future (as the current world system cannot sustain this rate of exponential decay.)

"天下事在局外呐喊议论，总是无益。

必须躬自入局， 挺膺负责 乃有成事之可翼。"

-曾国藩

"For whatever matter it may be, simply by complaining or shouting

outside the scene yet not participating in it will never help.

One must do his part in co-creating the event,

then it can be successful."

- GuoFan,Zeng (A Minister in Qing Dynasty)

Comments:<-

Be Aware of "The Marketing of Madness"!

Protect Yourself and your family Against the Deadly Lies with Truth...

When the citizens cannot depend on their government to protect them against the lies from Pharmaceutical Industry, then it would depend on the self-aware individual to alert one and other...

Below is a documentary exposes the mistakes made by psychiatrists, allies the pharmaceutical industry. It exposes the criminal enterprise we know as psychiatry, and ending with a list of 11 important actions that one can be taken after viewing this shocking and compelling documentary.

Continue watching the video here :->Youtube Link:<-

A quote from the documentary from the Stock Analyst's point of view:

"There are only two disasters than can happen in the drug industry. The first disaster is if you KILL people. The second disaster is if you CURE them."

“Unless we put medical freedom into the Constitution, the time will come when medicine will organize itself into an undercover dictatorship to restrict the art of healing to one class of men and companies and deny equal privileges to others and will constitute the Bastille of medical science.” – Dr. Benjamin Rush, signer of the US Declaration of Independence

Personal Finance (3) : The Business of Making Money from the Market

In this Feburary issue of the "Smart Money" magazine, it takes a look at the America's Top 1% fund managers and find out how big is the profits from this business -- that is Making Money from the Market.

It reveals that recently most mutual funds have been under attack for being under-performed their benchmarks (indices). And, ONLY 7% of actively managed funds were beating their benchmarks by 5% point or more.

And, it gives statistics on the average annual return for the past 5 years for the Top Performers in various area of focus:
*Foreign Stock funds,*U.S. Large Cap Funds,*Global Real Estate Funds, and
*U.S. Small Cap Fund.
Unlike the advertisement that trying to lure the public into the stock market by selling few days seminar that can double your money in a year or two. It may be surprise to some of you that the average annual return (5 yrs) of these Top Performing Funds from various fields range only from 2.2 to 13.8%!!!


Having read this, I thought it would be an interesting research to find out how the world most well known investor, Warren Buffett, was doing recently. And, what conclusions we may derive from it.

The above are two charts showing the 20 years performance of the S&P500 and the Warren's Berkshire Hathaway(BRK-A). And below is an excel sheet showing the historical Average Annual Compounded Return for the chars. (click on those charts and table to zoom in for clear view.)

From the table above, it show the comparison of the historical compunded average return of S&P500 and BRK-A. The table below shows the summary of the result.

Here are some interesting points to observe:


* Like most business in the any industries, the business of making money from the market is getting tougher and tougher! Well, this is simply the fact. As the business in the industries is getting more and more difficult, more companies could go bankrupt or downsize. This would directly reflect from the S&P500 chart.

* Even the best fund manager like Warren Buffet can just beat the S&P500 in single digit percentage over the years.


* Despite the massive money supply created by the governments for the last couple of years, the stock market did not really seems to move up in trend, only the inflation moving up in trend, and apparently annual inflation of food is going up much faster than what the best fund manager can achieve... What would Happen!?




The intention of this blog entry is wish to project a realistic view for those who think to get out from the job immediately and trade the market for a living from scratch. Despite the steep learning curve that would last a couple of years, one must have million dollars to make 100k on annual basis even if he got the skill.


On the other hand, if one were to think of handling their money by themselves, due to too many scams in the financial industry in recent years, after their retirement. It is strongly recommended to start learning the skills at least 10 years before the actual date of retirement... and that is probably the minimum amount of time required on part-time basis. Dig your own well before you are thirsty.

Demonstrating to others that what they believe is wrong can be dangerous.
You can't count on people to recognize the truth when they hear it.
People will fight to preserve their own ignorance.
- lessons from Plato

The Man with the Mission of "Making You Rich"!? - Robert Kiyosaki

Robert Kiyosaki has been well known since his first best selling book "Rich Dad, Poor Dad", which
was published in 2001 (10 years ago). Yes, if you have not read the book, it is strongly recommended
to do so as it is really an inspiring book on personal finance.

Following by this inspirational "Get Rich" concept, multiple books had been published and become
best seller of the time. Especially on the Real Estate Investment Topics during the last US market
Housing Boom since 2003.

Click on the Chart to Zoom in for detail view of time frame

The above stock chart illustrates the Real Estate market in US since 2001 till now. Did he help to fuel 
the last Housing Bubble in the US and cause many investors run into heavy debt eventually, I don't 
know.  But, it just prove few simple facts.

1) Which is with the current society system setup, "NOT ALL PEOPLE CAN BE RICH ALL 
AT ONE TIME." This is true even no matter how hard that everyone is trying their best to read, to 
learn, and to work. See... What happen if all people getting rich and all want to get retire early? Who 
is going to drive the public transportation, who is going to clean the shopping mall, and so on...

2) Getting Rich requires a person to have a long term persistent effort and development on some 
Specialize Knowledges and Wisdoms, which can not be Duplicated like copy a file from one 
computer to another, by simply reading a book or attending a seminar would not get there immediately. 
Similarly, simply by working on a job created by someone else for you (unless you are top executives 
in big corporations which is rare) will not get you rich, nor get you to retirement comfortably in early
age.

Attached are few video clips that take the view from another angle of Robert Kiyosaki teaching. That 
is by holding few days workshop with large group of participants at 45,000 Canadian Dollar per 
person... 

Did you ask the Questions:
"WHO REALLY MAKES WHO RICH?"
"IS THE INTENTION ONLY TO HELP THE RICH TO GET RICHER?"








If you have trouble to see the video clips above, here are the link to youtube.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HE6nT0oyPt8

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dv6feHB0AE4&NR=1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9iimvyVCEGA&NR=1

Historically, getting less in number nowadays despite it has more population on earth ever, there are 

great teachers in many fields, such as spiritual, philosophy, medicine, etc... helping others to have a 

better live. I never heard that they went around helping other by charging them with big lump sum of 

money first. So, what lead human to behave as today? And, more importantly, with the trend going, 

what would be the future look like??? 

No man has a chance to enjoy permanent success

until he begins to look in a mirror for the

real cause of all his mistakes.

- Napoleon Hill

---------------------------------------- Added on Mar 2014 ---------------------------------

This man is REALLY RICH!!!

When it comes to patent on the vaccine he discovered, his replied was: - "Can you patent the Sun?"

A Catch-22 Situation : Human Population on Earth

In "The Economist", Nov 2010 issue, it has a special report on the aging problem of Japan's population. As it can see from the chart above, "from pyramid to kite", that the age group of the older population slowly become heavier weight than the younger population over time. This would mean that the age group of working class (say, 20-55) that bring home with the paycheck would have a heavier load (financially) to carry. Or the retirement age of the current working generation will have to continuously extend into the future, to a degree that in the future the children and their parents may compete for the same job vacancy!?


Well, may be the apparent solution is to have more new babies??? Which will bring the "Kite Shape" back to a "Pyramid"...


But, then look at the "National Geographic", Jan 2011 issue, that the human population is going to cross the 7 Billion mark some time this year, and it is in a trend of continuous growth towards 9 Billion mark in the next 30 over years! Does this planet earth sill has enough natural resources to sustain such growth in a peace and harmony way?



Well, I don't think there is any one can provide an acceptable official solution to all people and thus there is no public media want to cover both sides of the story.


Anyway, even the first article is using Japan as an example. How about the situation of YOUR COUNTRY???

Here is the Singapore Population Pyramid Projection till 2050.

If there is any difficulty to view the embeded video, click direct on this youtube link:->

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qBEn6hcU5uQ

Attached is the link that will provide you with the "Pyramid Chart":-

http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/country.php

Simply select the "Country" and the "Year" can click on the Submit button.
Then, click on the "Population Pyramids" button, and you will get the answer.

Some other relevant links:-
-> PEAK OIL: "Hello World, I Am Here!" <-
It's the Planet, Stupid.
Georgia Guidestones - Wikipedia.
Message at Georgia Guidestones - YouTube.

"The all is one, the one is all."

-Bashar

Self Development Idea (12) - Team and Grow Rich

-----8< ----- Article Cut & Paste from Scientific American MIND, Vol 17 No 3, June/July 2006 -----

Better Than Individuals

When three, four or five people gather to solve a problem, chances are they will succeed beyond the efforts of an equivalent number of individuals working separately, even if those soloists are the brightest available. So conclude researchers at the University of Illinois.

The investigators enrolled 760 of the school’s students to solve complex letter and word problems. Some toiled as individuals while others functioned in groups of two, three, four or fi ve. The groups of three, four and fi ve performed better than any set of individuals.

The dynamic is sensitive, however. Teams of two performed at the same level as two separate people, suggesting that this team size is too small to foster the dynamics that create optimal problem solving. Also interesting is that groups of three, four and five did equally well compared with one another; there was no advantage to adding people beyond a trio.

Study leader Patrick R. Laughlin says that in addition to tackling workplace challenges, problem-solving groups might enhance classroom learning. Further research is needed to determine whether student groups perform better than individuals do in academic settings and, if so, at what ages and tasks.

— Mark Fischetti

--------------------------------------------------------------8< ------------------------------------------------------

Although the result of the above research is nothing new for those who had studied the books by Napoleon Hill, I think it is an excellent articles to illustrate the important point of teamwork.

Napoleon Hill called it the "Master Mind Group"- the power beyond science. In short he described that "The Master Mind effort is to get those of like mind, form an alliance with about 5-6 people as optimum number, to work actively in a spirit of perfect harmony towards accomplishing of a definite purpose."

In my view, this concept is now more valuable than any of the historical time. This is because the knowledge that need to achieve success in the modern society has become so complex that not only the depth, but also the breath of subjects are increasing rapidly which fuel by modern technology.

For example, in the past, a farmer, scientist, doctor, teacher, engineer or any person who have a full time job can concentrate in their work and entrust their life-time saving to the fund managers and banks that would be needed for retirement. But, in this dog-eat-dog era, with too many "Bad Apples" in the market, people has to worry about the ethical issues of their brokers/fund managers, bankruptcy of banks... And even with the possibility of bankruptcy of certain states or the whole country... or yet another round of financial turbulence that might wipe out their saving or loose their job!!! Think about it, what a joke (though not funny but a sad one) for the thousand years of evolution of human history.

Working harder on the job would not solve such problems. Think of it this way:- one would need to fill up a bucket of water as accumulating enough personal retirement fund. But, one cannot fill up a bucket if there are a few leaking holes on it. The more water one fill into it, the more it would leak out.

Anyway, here is a little suggestion... Individual can form team to handle their financial matters, and make sure that at least one person in the term have a compass to navigate through the turbulence market in the future.

"A dwarf standing on the shoulders of a giant

may see farther than a giant himself."

- Didacus Stella.

Here is a blog link for those who are not familiar with the term "Master Mind Group".

Why Old Beliefs or Behaviors (Habits) are Hard to Change

The short video clip (1 min 20 sec, by Gerald Kein), above explains the reason why old beliefs or behaviors (Habits) are hard to change. And, it has deep implication on how our society behave as it is as today...

* The schools, religions, public media, together with the family members implants ideas and beliefs into the subconscious mind of child since he is borned. And, when the child has grown up, he tends to conform to the Rules of the Society.

Well, below is a short video that can provide the detoxification by only a couple of questions.... (by Jim Rohn).

"WHO said it could not be done? And what great victories has he

to his credit which qualify him to judge others accurately?"

- Napoleon Hill

Season Greeting (1)

It was fun trying to learn some video editing skill...

Such as prepare a Season Greeting Video...



And other Stuffs... 

How to Trade in Market...

Thanks for visiting and have a nice Day.
KH Tang

PEAK OIL:"Hello, World! I am here."

Below are two slides Cut & Paste from the "Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas" ASPO 2010 World Oil Conference.

The first slide shows that we have gone passed the first half of the Age of Oil as we know it...
Where in this first half of the Oil Age:
* Oil is located on-shore or near to shore,
* In vast reservoirs called giants and super-giants oil field,
* Mainly consist of Light & Sweet Crude Oil,
* Inexpensive to produce which cost around $1 to $10/barrel.
(These had become history)


Whereas in this second half of the oil age which are are now at...* Oil fields are far offshore or deep underground,* Scattered in hard to reach, yet small reservoirs,
* Mainly consist of Heavy and Sour Crude oil,
* Much more expensive to produce which cost $80 and more per barrel.
(This is what we are going to face)
Original Source of slide by Andre Angelantoni, Title: Where Are We Now?: <- The following slide is a Zoom-in of the chart to have a more detail view of current oil production scenario... It shows that there in not much spare oil production capacity in this world.

Link to Robert L. Hirsch Presentation slides on The ASPO-USA Conference, 8 Oct 2010. Title: The Impending World Energy Mess, What it is and What it Means to YOU!

There are more presentation slides can be found in the following link. Which cover various aspects, such as Peak Oil Preparation and Investment topics, with over 30 presentations:->

The Association for the Study of Peak Oil(ASPO) USA Peak Oil Conference (7-9 Oct 2010) Presentation Slides Directory

For those who are first time to come across the topic of Peak Oil or not too familiar with it, the following is AN EXCELLENT 60 minutes video presentation by Congressman Roscoe Bartlett in the House in 2005. This important and valuable information had been overshadowed by few other major events, such as housing bubbles and Wall Street crisis... As these economy issues actually help to destroy oil demand to a certain extend and mitigate the oil price. But, the problem is still there, and it will re-surface with bigger trouble in these few years time frame... Possibly anytime now.

Part 1 of 7

Part 2 of 7, Part 3 of 7, Part 4 of 7, Part 5 of 7, Part 6 of 7, Part 7 of 7

“…By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 MBD.” - Congressman Roscoe Bartlett at ASPO-USA World Oil Conference, 7 Oct 2010.
Link to Congressman Roscoe Bartlett Keynote Presentation Slides: <- Click Here

Below is a PowerPoint slide that introduce the peak oil concept to beginner. It has to be downloaded with PowerPoint format in order to see some of the animation...
A brief introduction to PEAK OIL.pps (<-: Download link from 4shared site)

Another Important Point is that...

None of the government in the world has formerly inform their citizens on this issue, and try to openly form organization figure out the solution. It is up to individual to share information (books, documentary, blog, etc) in the internet or self-organized group, such as ASPO to fan out the information... Example...

Data Speaks for itself:-> PDF Link <-

^Click on the Picture to ZOOM IN for better clarity:^

Oil Supply vs Stock Market in the History

Note: Since Money is a very flexible things nowadays, which means the printing of it can get very fast... and when the money flow into the Stock Market, it raise the index. So, it is not necessary that the market will go down... Only the future can tell.

Our World Governments Response to Peak Oil

Or they will have to give up the 2nd term, and

the following video is an good example.

"My father rode a camel. I drive a car.

My son flies a jet airplane.

His son will ride a camel."

- Saudi Saying

Note:

Many people think that Gold or Silver can preserve "Value"... That could be true during the process of change. And, ultimately, the world economy is fueled by energy.

As the Black Gold (oil) is now getting less and less, it would just cost more and more. Eventually, who has the power to control the oil supply, who dictates the rule of the game.


Relevant Article:
-> A Catch-22 Situation: Human Population On Earth <-


------------------------------------Added on Aug 2012--------------------------------

Here is an Alternative view about the Peak Oil... <-

------------------------------------ Added on Sep 2013 -------------------------------
One of the Best Presentation on the Subject on Peak Oil by  Matthew Simmons.




------------------------------------ Added on 04 Dec 2013 -------------------------------

US shale oil hides crude oil peak in rest of world   (<- charts="" click="" for="" link="" more="" p="" the="">

The above link with an article by Matt Mushalik has more insight on how the current state of crude oil production and trending...










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