KH Tang's Blog: Peak Oil

Showing posts with label Peak Oil. Show all posts

Personal Finance (12): Guru Rotation in the Financial Market

There are many famous Gurus in the financial market, and their philosophies are pretty well accepted by their followers (subscribers).

Take for examples:
1. Jim Rogers is the icon represents long term investment in the commodities market.

2
2. Marc Faber, also known as Dr. Doom, advocates that the market is collapsing, collapsing, and collapsing...

3.
3. Stephen Leeb is using the "Peak Oil" as a backgroud and focus on Energy Sector.

4.
4. Peter Schiff is singing about the collapsing US Dollar and Accumulates physical gold or GLD (ETFs).

.
And, when they are correct, they will occupy everywhere in the media and get more followers.

Now... As shown in the charts, they were ALL CORRECT at certain point of time in a "Rotational Manner".

So... Don't you think that having a "market neutral mentality", doing your study, understand and follow the market actions with the charts, and perform asset class rotation is a better deal?

Now...
See what the successful Trader and Trainer in the Stock Market, Richard D. Wyckoff, had to say:

Very true! In my view, most of the publication on financial advices and news are just like Coke or genetic modified foods. They are are produced for the public consumption with the intention of making a profits out of it. The earlier one chooses to stop taking them, the earlier he gets healthier.

In a Nutshell : Why Market Rotation?
The stock market, as of today, is working like a Giant Ponzi Scheme as a Whole, which is formed by Multiple Smaller Ponzi Schemes as Sectors, Countries and Individual Stocks. The Public Media would help to Rotate in Bubbling few Sectors/Countries//Stocks at a time for profiteering and dump the shares to the public, let them burst, and then ROTATE the operation to Other Sectors/Stocks.

"What information consumes is rather obvious:

it consumes the attention of the recipents.

Hence a wealth of information creates

a poverty of attention."

- Herbert Simon

PEAK OIL:"Hello, World! I am here."

Below are two slides Cut & Paste from the "Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas" ASPO 2010 World Oil Conference.

The first slide shows that we have gone passed the first half of the Age of Oil as we know it...
Where in this first half of the Oil Age:
* Oil is located on-shore or near to shore,
* In vast reservoirs called giants and super-giants oil field,
* Mainly consist of Light & Sweet Crude Oil,
* Inexpensive to produce which cost around $1 to $10/barrel.
(These had become history)

Whereas in this second half of the oil age which are are now at...* Oil fields are far offshore or deep underground,* Scattered in hard to reach, yet small reservoirs,
* Mainly consist of Heavy and Sour Crude oil,
* Much more expensive to produce which cost $80 and more per barrel.
(This is what we are going to face)
Original Source of slide by Andre Angelantoni, Title: Where Are We Now?: <- The following slide is a Zoom-in of the chart to have a more detail view of current oil production scenario... It shows that there in not much spare oil production capacity in this world.

Link to Robert L. Hirsch Presentation slides on The ASPO-USA Conference, 8 Oct 2010. Title: The Impending World Energy Mess, What it is and What it Means to YOU!

There are more presentation slides can be found in the following link. Which cover various aspects, such as Peak Oil Preparation and Investment topics, with over 30 presentations:->

The Association for the Study of Peak Oil(ASPO) USA Peak Oil Conference (7-9 Oct 2010) Presentation Slides Directory

For those who are first time to come across the topic of Peak Oil or not too familiar with it, the following is AN EXCELLENT 60 minutes video presentation by Congressman Roscoe Bartlett in the House in 2005. This important and valuable information had been overshadowed by few other major events, such as housing bubbles and Wall Street crisis... As these economy issues actually help to destroy oil demand to a certain extend and mitigate the oil price. But, the problem is still there, and it will re-surface with bigger trouble in these few years time frame... Possibly anytime now.

Part 1 of 7

Part 2 of 7, Part 3 of 7, Part 4 of 7, Part 5 of 7, Part 6 of 7, Part 7 of 7

“…By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 MBD.” - Congressman Roscoe Bartlett at ASPO-USA World Oil Conference, 7 Oct 2010.
Link to Congressman Roscoe Bartlett Keynote Presentation Slides: <- Click Here

Below is a PowerPoint slide that introduce the peak oil concept to beginner. It has to be downloaded with PowerPoint format in order to see some of the animation...
A brief introduction to PEAK OIL.pps (<-: Download link from 4shared site)

Another Important Point is that...

None of the government in the world has formerly inform their citizens on this issue, and try to openly form organization figure out the solution. It is up to individual to share information (books, documentary, blog, etc) in the internet or self-organized group, such as ASPO to fan out the information... Example...

Data Speaks for itself:-> PDF Link <-

^Click on the Picture to ZOOM IN for better clarity:^

Oil Supply vs Stock Market in the History

Note: Since Money is a very flexible things nowadays, which means the printing of it can get very fast... and when the money flow into the Stock Market, it raise the index. So, it is not necessary that the market will go down... Only the future can tell.

Our World Governments Response to Peak Oil

Or they will have to give up the 2nd term, and

the following video is an good example.

"My father rode a camel. I drive a car.

My son flies a jet airplane.

His son will ride a camel."

- Saudi Saying

Note:

Many people think that Gold or Silver can preserve "Value"... That could be true during the process of change. And, ultimately, the world economy is fueled by energy.

As the Black Gold (oil) is now getting less and less, it would just cost more and more. Eventually, who has the power to control the oil supply, who dictates the rule of the game.

Relevant Article:
-> A Catch-22 Situation: Human Population On Earth <-

------------------------------------Added on Aug 2012--------------------------------

Here is an Alternative view about the Peak Oil... <-

------------------------------------ Added on Sep 2013 -------------------------------
One of the Best Presentation on the Subject on Peak Oil by Matthew Simmons.

------------------------------------ Added on 04 Dec 2013 -------------------------------

US shale oil hides crude oil peak in rest of world (<- charts="" click="" for="" link="" more="" p="" the="">

The above link with an article by Matt Mushalik has more insight on how the current state of crude oil production and trending...

-> Comment <-

Project Atlas Shrugged!? (1): WHO KILLED THE ELECTRIC CAR?

In this documentry, Who Killed the Electric Car?(2006)...

Link for You-tube <-- Click to Watch the full Documentary.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uep5zOrsAEA

In 1996, electric cars (EV1) began to appear on roads all over Califonia. They were quiet and fast, produced no exhaust and ran without gasoline.... Ten years later (2005), these futuristic cars were completely gone, as they were called back and scraped into dust by their manufacturer(GM) , while they are still in good working condition...

In the last part of the movie, it questioned who was the "One" who killed these electic cars.

At that time, people tend to believe that the manufacturer, GM, was under pressured by the Big Oil Organizations to get rid of those energy efficient cars, so that it would not hurt their oil's profits.

At first, this logical thinking made good scense... BUT, later in Jun 2009 GM declared bankruptcy!!! Then, if one were to think it over again... It make no sense that GM would allow the oil companies to dictate their survival as a company and not using those electic cars, which may save their company as the world is crying for energy efficient cars...

So, if this is not the logical reason, then what is? Not only "WHO" killed the electric car, but also "WHY" Killed the electric car??? What is the INTENTION and MOTIVE???

For those who had read the book - "Atlas Shrugged" by Ayn Rand, it provides a very strong and possible reason.(see the footnote below) That is to keep it for the future, after the world have come to a complete collapsed due to Peak Oil.
Why wait until then? Because, if anyone sell such futuristic product in the market for the Fiat Currency, competitors all over the world would buy them and duplicate with reverse-engineering!

One must learn not to cheat himself, by good will or intention, that the world is now in a completely peace and harmony way. This is definitely not the case among the super-power countries... And, not even within their own country.

Footnote:
In the book, Atlas Shrugged, a fictional character by the name of John Galt had invented revolutionary new motor powered by ambient static electricity, which means it can used for generating electicity with almost zero maintenance cost. He scrapped the proto-type and hided in a secret valley. Because that he do not think the world system was set up correctly in his perspective, and he do not want them to enjoy the benefit of the invention.

Not only that, Galt then secretly persuaded the world's creative leaders, including inventors, artists and businessmen on by one to quit and disappear from their position and join him. He organized them in an effort to "stop the motor of the world" and bring about the collapse of the society.

At the end, these group of Elites, lead by John Galt, appear as the heros to rescue the world and implement the blue print in their mind - how the New World Order should be.

All of us have one the following choices:-

1. Having an Open Mind